Pattern Building in the Mind
We like meaning and connections, and we’ll sometimes find them even when they’re not there. People who understand this can deceive you. The Improbability Principle from Neuroblogica is a very good summary of this.
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Vocabulary Word of the Day: Probability
I know headline writers need their splashy headlines, but as the media is filled with word of a stunning upset, we should remember the number of times that one candidate or the other was “destroyed” or “finished,” or the election was declared “over.” A poll takes a snapshot of part of the electorate which is…
Accuracy of Predictions
There’s very little checking done of the accuracy of the prediction of pundits, which is a major reason I avoid even hearing what they have to say. One exception to this rule is Nate Silver and his crew at FiveThirtyEight.com. They’ve just published an analysis of as many of their predictions as possible. It’s worth…