Understanding Polls and Probabilities
Jonathan Last defends Nate Silver, but it’s really just explaining what “probability” means. HT: Dispatches.
Jonathan Last defends Nate Silver, but it’s really just explaining what “probability” means. HT: Dispatches.
This looks very promising. I hope it gets more attention. (HT: Dispatches.)
When I first set out to join a United Methodist congregation, I asked the pastor for definitive information on United Methodist beliefs. With much trepidation, he provided me with a United Methodist Discipline. I read the first hundred or so pages, not being too interested in the details of the church’s committee structures, including the…
Up, folks, always up. Those who know me as a moderate (which I prefer) or as a liberal (which I am often called) may be surprised to know that I started my political activism by working in the campaign of Ronald Reagan in 1976 when he ran against Gerald Ford. It was the first presidential…
Chuck Baldwin maintains that the birth of our Savior and the birth of our nation are closely linked. I’m afraid I don’t get it, even allowing all his facts, some of which I would dispute. I just don’t see the parallel between the guns of the revolution and the Babe of Bethlehem emptying himself of…
From CNN: “Two hours after their midnight deadline, the Senate overwhelmingly passed a last-minute deal Tuesday to avert the feared fiscal cliff on a 89-8 vote.” To put a charitable construction on it, they mean the deal was made at the last-minute and passed two hours after the deadline, but if you pass it after…
This story about Afghanistan and the opium harvest, which has reached a record high this year reminded me of one of the problems with reporting the drug war. We tend to report on the huge amounts of drugs that are stopped. What we don’t comment on so much is how many drugs are getting through….