Understanding Polls and Probabilities
Jonathan Last defends Nate Silver, but it’s really just explaining what “probability” means. HT: Dispatches.
Jonathan Last defends Nate Silver, but it’s really just explaining what “probability” means. HT: Dispatches.
Gallup reports that U. S. Distrust in Media Hits New High. Unfortunately, I suspect this distrust does not reflect a dismay at the amount of inaccurate information and a desire to get accurate information whatever the cost. I suspect that it’s more because of the large number of partisans who think their party, candidate, or…
There’s a new essay on Philosoraptor dealing with Hurricane Katrina. Carol Roper makes some excellent points though she is somewhat harsher on the government than I was. What is clear is that we must find out specifically who is responsible, and hold them accountable. Saying the results are not acceptable, but all the people are…
All my readers know by now that I prefer Barack Obama out of the available options. Now we receive the exciting news that Bill Clinton disagrees with her on free trade with Colombia. Huge surprise there, considering he pushed NAFTA through, though it’s mildly surprising that he isn’t trying to cover it all up. Personally…
I’m posting this for discussion. I plan to use as the question in our Energion political debate in April. Right now the participants are discussing the budget. From the middle of March (March 21) into April they’ll be discussing the role of government and why they take the position they do. Then starting April 18…
I’ve previously said a few good things about fact checking operations such as Politifact, but I’ve also noticed a few questionable items where opinion interfered with facts. But today I read the article Lies, Damned Lies, and ‘Fact Checking’, and having looked into this a bit further, I must say that the few issues I…
I believe I have established here that I like tolerance, but I have also noted that tolerance is a value for me, not an absolute. In other words, I don’t have to tolerate everything. I just believe it’s good to be as tolerant as possible. (You can find some previous comments here.) Ed Brayton has…