The chart below is produced by Statista, and gives a visual of where disinformation originates on Facebook. It is built on Facebook data. You can read more about it here. It is worth noting where these attacks come from, with Iran just a little bit behind Russia. You will find more infographics at Statista
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” — Mark Twain But I can paraphrase what supporters of gun rights say: Numbers don’t lie. People lie. People use numbers to lie. Sometimes it’s unconscious. I can say, “Most people believe X.” But that word “most” is imprecise, and sounds like I may…
One of the least accurate elements of the news, in my opinion, is the reporting of opinion polls. If you think this is always someone else, you may be part of the problem. Polls are not precise measurements and results vary. That’s why you have a probability (often 90% or 95%) that the results fall…
Before I get to the article I’m linking from them today, I want to emphasize something important. I like numbers, yes, but you have to be careful. The reason for this is that you have to understand how the numbers you’re liking were produced.
Here’s your illustration. Liberals loved Nate Silver because he calculated that Barack Obama would win the presidency, among other things. Conservatives didn’t like him so much. Now conservatives are pointing to the poor odds, though 60-40 is a ratio many politicians would covet. I love Nate Silver not because of who he supports but because…
We like meaning and connections, and we’ll sometimes find them even when they’re not there. People who understand this can deceive you. The Improbability Principle from Neuroblogica is a very good summary of this.
… always consider the sampling error when you report the difference between successive polls. News organizations have been getting some better, in my subjective view, in noting when a result is within the sampling error in a particular poll, but they still report increases or decreases in a lead without that note. If a candidate…
Wesley Elsberry nails it in this post. He also mentions the great book How to Lie with Statistics, which everyone should read.
. . . or how to lie with headlines. I get very annoyed with the reporting of polls. One way to create news is to incorrectly headline or even incorrectly describe polling data. For example, CNN uses the headline Poll: Romney & Gingrich Tied for Top Spot in reporting on the latest USA Today/Gallup poll…
Recently I’ve had several different things remind me of what I perceive to be a serious problem with numbers in this country. This can have a severe impact on one’s personal life, but also on church and social policy issues. I recall when I argued some academic affairs committee into allowing me to count a…
