Comments on: Truth Value of Numbers http://henrysthreads.com/2006/03/truth-value-of-numbers/ Thoughts on Religion in the World from a passionate, moderate, liberal charismatic Christian Thu, 09 Feb 2012 02:11:25 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Rich Tatum http://henrysthreads.com/2006/03/truth-value-of-numbers/comment-page-1/#comment-81 Rich Tatum Sat, 11 Mar 2006 15:16:33 +0000 http://www.energionpubs.com/wordpress/?p=109#comment-81 I completely agree that growth rates are no measure of doctrinal "truthiness." Witness the Muslims and Mormons (although, they are enjoying great birth rate growth due to their respective theologies, but growth through evangelism in the Global south for the Mormons has long bolstered their trends--and it is in decline). In fact, in this increasingly "religious" and "spiritual" climate, I expect to see burgeoning numbers for flaky doctrinal positions precisely because of the false comfort that is brought to bear on those concerned with life-after-death. You might find my blog post on this of interest: <a href="http://tatumweb.com/blog/index.php/2006/03/06/carlton-d-pearson/" rel="nofollow">Carlton D. Pearson: The Charismatic Bishop of Heresy</a> Regards, Rich <a href="http://tatumweb.com/blog/" rel="nofollow">BlogRodent</a> I completely agree that growth rates are no measure of doctrinal “truthiness.” Witness the Muslims and Mormons (although, they are enjoying great birth rate growth due to their respective theologies, but growth through evangelism in the Global south for the Mormons has long bolstered their trends–and it is in decline). In fact, in this increasingly “religious” and “spiritual” climate, I expect to see burgeoning numbers for flaky doctrinal positions precisely because of the false comfort that is brought to bear on those concerned with life-after-death.

You might find my blog post on this of interest:

Carlton D. Pearson: The Charismatic Bishop of Heresy

Regards,

Rich
BlogRodent

]]> By: Henry Neufeld http://henrysthreads.com/2006/03/truth-value-of-numbers/comment-page-1/#comment-80 Henry Neufeld Fri, 10 Mar 2006 20:13:38 +0000 http://www.energionpubs.com/wordpress/?p=109#comment-80 Thanks! I particularly like comments that blow things wide open. I'm glad I hedged with an "if" about the numbers. It is really very important to understand precisely what is measured by a set of statistics before trying to draw conclusions. Thanks for the additional information. Thanks! I particularly like comments that blow things wide open. I’m glad I hedged with an “if” about the numbers. It is really very important to understand precisely what is measured by a set of statistics before trying to draw conclusions.

Thanks for the additional information.

]]> By: ruidh http://henrysthreads.com/2006/03/truth-value-of-numbers/comment-page-1/#comment-78 ruidh Fri, 10 Mar 2006 19:07:58 +0000 http://www.energionpubs.com/wordpress/?p=109#comment-78 I take a particular interest in church membership statistics and the claims for growth and decline and especially the cause and effect claims between certain doctrines or ecclesiologies and growth rates. The growth of the Souther Baptist Convention is often taken as a particular example of this trend in the past few decades, but it's clear that, when the membership statistics are examined, most of that growth has come through the affiliation of existing Baptist congregations with the umbrella organization and not through evangelism. If rapid growth is to be taken as a gign of God's favor, we should all become Mormons. The mainline churches have been subject to declining numbers since their high point in the early 60s. An extensive review of membership statistics and demographic trends since WWII was completed in the early 90s and offers a lot of valuable insight. Over this period of time, the Episcopal Church (to take an example I am intamately familiar with) declined approximately in half since its high point. Demographically speaking, any population grows or declines based on a few activities: birth rates, mortality rates, immigration and conversion into and out of the group from other churches (and from not attending). I argue that effective evangelism can only effect that last of these. It isn't an evangelical success story if you get your members to have babies at an uncontrained rate. But it is an evangelical success if you convert in more people than who convert out to leave the denomination. When we examine the demographic statistics for the Episcopal Church, we discover that conversion taes are highly favorable -- more people convert in than convert out so that, over time, this is a net increase to the group. The mainline churches have all exhibited two common features: low birth rates and high mortality rates (representing an older population). At least in the Episcopal Church where about 12 people convert in for every 10 out, this is insufficent to overcome a birth rate well below replacement over long periods of time. The mainstream churches have been a victim of their former institutional success. At a time when attending a church (and sometimes atending a certain church) was a necessary prerequisite for social standing, there's no where to go but down once membership dosn't become a social requirement. I take a particular interest in church membership statistics and the claims for growth and decline and especially the cause and effect claims between certain doctrines or ecclesiologies and growth rates. The growth of the Souther Baptist Convention is often taken as a particular example of this trend in the past few decades, but it’s clear that, when the membership statistics are examined, most of that growth has come through the affiliation of existing Baptist congregations with the umbrella organization and not through evangelism. If rapid growth is to be taken as a gign of God’s favor, we should all become Mormons.

The mainline churches have been subject to declining numbers since their high point in the early 60s. An extensive review of membership statistics and demographic trends since WWII was completed in the early 90s and offers a lot of valuable insight. Over this period of time, the Episcopal Church (to take an example I am intamately familiar with) declined approximately in half since its high point.

Demographically speaking, any population grows or declines based on a few activities: birth rates, mortality rates, immigration and conversion into and out of the group from other churches (and from not attending). I argue that effective evangelism can only effect that last of these. It isn’t an evangelical success story if you get your members to have babies at an uncontrained rate. But it is an evangelical success if you convert in more people than who convert out to leave the denomination.

When we examine the demographic statistics for the Episcopal Church, we discover that conversion taes are highly favorable — more people convert in than convert out so that, over time, this is a net increase to the group. The mainline churches have all exhibited two common features: low birth rates and high mortality rates (representing an older population). At least in the Episcopal Church where about 12 people convert in for every 10 out, this is insufficent to overcome a birth rate well below replacement over long periods of time.

The mainstream churches have been a victim of their former institutional success. At a time when attending a church (and sometimes atending a certain church) was a necessary prerequisite for social standing, there’s no where to go but down once membership dosn’t become a social requirement.

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